In the first two months of this year, the amount and amount of China's coke exports both increased year-on-year, but industry sources said that this is not enough to show that coke exports have rebounded significantly. Under the policy of export restrictions, the export situation of coke in the second half of the year remains difficult to be optimistic. At present, both the quantity and amount of coke exports have risen year-on-year, but people in the industry have stated that although there has been a substantial increase in the quantity, there is not enough evidence to show that there has been a significant rebound in coke exports. And under the policy of export, the export situation of coke in the second half of the year remains difficult to be optimistic. Customs statistics show that in the first two months of this year, the export volume of coke in China increased by 250,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 times over the same period of last year; the total amount of exports increased by 376.2% year-on-year to US$17.783 million, and the average export price increased by US$45/ton. Analysts expect that after the international coking coal price has been pushed up in 2011, the rising domestic coke export prices will enable the coke export to achieve a “good start†in the first quarter. However, "this is not enough to show that the coke export has rebounded significantly. Under the 40% export tariff and other unfavorable export restrictions, the coke export situation in the second half of the year remains difficult to be optimistic," said Mu Wenxin, an analyst at Union Metals. Three factors gave birth to the new performance of coke export Affected by the weakening of international financial markets, the cumulative export of coke in China in the first two months of last year was only 90,000 tons. "Because the previous base is too low, China's coke exports will have such a substantial increase in the first two months," said Li Ting, an analyst at the China Circulation Productivity Promotion Center. In addition, "Australia floods are another booster for China's soaring coke exports," said Mr. Chen, a coke port company in Tianjin Port. Prior to 2008, China had always been a large exporter of coke, but under the influence of the international financial crisis and the coke export tariffs raised to 40%, the relatively low price of coking coal in Queensland Australia was once a “good heart†for international buyers. The domestic coke export volume has dropped significantly. However, floods in Australia have provided market space for domestic coking companies. Lange Iron and Steel analyst Yan said, "Australia's outburst of floods last year has caused major coal mines and railway facilities in the country's coal-producing area of ​​Queensland to suffer a major impact and stagnated, and international coking coal prices have also seen blow-out growth. Queensland exports Coal accounted for 40% of the global coal seaborne trade volume. Therefore, in Australia, where coking coal production plummeted and international coking coal spot price (FOB price) soared, Japan, Korea, and India, which are highly dependent on Australian coking coal, have had It has turned to other regions for procurement, and China’s coke has once again received attention from importing countries." "It is even more critical that international coal prices push up metallurgical coke FOB quotation," said a Shanxi coke export trader. “According to the data, the price of coking coal in China rose by RMB 150/ton in January, while the price of domestic coke increased by RMB 80~100/ton; while the price of international coking coal increased by RMB 30/ton in the same period.†said Mu Wenxin. , “If the coke ratio required to produce one ton of coke is 1.33:1, the increase in domestic coke prices will be around RMB 150/t lower than that in foreign countries.†Taking February as an example, the mainstream price of tax in Tianjin Port Quasi-primary coke is 2,250 yuan/ton, plus freight, port miscellaneous, quotas, agency fees, customs inspection and inspection fees, and customs duties, which are converted into USD FOB prices at 510~520. USD/ton. This price has a certain market share under the tight international coke resources. Temporarily warm up It was learned from relevant sources that in February, China exported 240,000 tons of coke and semi-coke. From late February to early March, the export volume of coke from Tianjin Port was as high as 600,000 tons. However, “According to the port data, with a monthly capacity of 240,000 tons, a ship carrying 70,000 tons to 80,000 tons can be carried away in 4 days. Therefore, although the number has increased significantly, it is not enough to show that the coke export is obvious. Rebound," Mu Wenxin said. On March 11, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale hit the sea near the east coast of Honshu, Japan. The earthquake and the tsunami caused by it caused huge losses to the Japanese steel industry. Analysts expect that due to the earthquake, demand for coking coal by Japanese steelmakers may decline in the short-term, while the previously high international coking coal prices may experience a slight correction. However, the Japanese earthquake has a limited impact on international coking coal prices, and international coking coal prices will remain in a relatively high position. As a result of the economic recovery in various countries, steel output has also recovered to a relatively high level. The demand for coke in China has also rebounded significantly in various markets. The China Securities Regulatory Commission formally approved the launch of coke futures trading by the company. “The coke will promote industrial restructuring and enterprises after listing. Improve market competitiveness and enhance market discourse rights,†said Yan. According to this, industry insiders expect that the Chinese coke export market will continue to show volume and price rise. However, it should be noted that coke as a "two high and one capital" industry, China's 40% export tariffs and other unfavorable export restrictions, the coke export situation in the second half is not optimistic. Compared to the international financial crisis, China's international trade in coke will account for 50% of the world's level and will never return. "It is a good thing to run out of the 4.6 million tons of coke export quota for the first half of this year," said Yan.
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