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1. Overview of Taiwan's fasteners in the first quarter of 2011 As the global economy continues to recover, Taiwan’s fastener exports totaled NT$26.5 billion in the first quarter of 2011, a record high for the same period of the calendar year, an increase of 22% over the same period in 2010. %. The total export volume reached 337,000 metric tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year. In terms of export average unit price, the average unit price for Taiwan's exports in the first quarter of 2011 was 78.4 yuan/kg. On the import side, the total value of fasteners imported into Taiwan in the first quarter of 2011 was NT$1 billion, an increase of 12% compared with the same period of last year (Figure 1, Table 1).
Figure 1: Trends of Taiwan's Fastener Exports from the Second Quarter of 2008 to the First Quarter of 2011
(Source: Taiwan Institute of Customs Import and Export Database / Metal Center IT IS Plan)
Table 1: Supply and Demand Analysis of Fastener Industry Market in Taiwan in the First Quarter of 2007~2011
(Source: Taiwan Institute of Customs Import and Export Database / Metal Center IT IS Plan)
In terms of import and export countries, the top five exporters in Taiwan in the first quarter of 2011 were the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, and the United Kingdom, which increased by 34%, 10%, 6%, 6%, and 4%, respectively. Among them, the average unit price for export to Japan was the highest, at 92 yuan/kg, and the remaining four countries were at 71 to 80 yuan/kg. The top five importers in Taiwan in the first quarter were Japan, the United States, Germany, China, and the Philippines. The import value increased by 57%, 9%, 7%, 6%, and 5%, respectively.
2. Overview of the major export markets Although the Japan quake caused uncertainties in the development of the global economy, coupled with the high unemployment rate in Europe and the United States and other developed countries, it was stimulated by the demand of emerging economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2011 The “Global Economic Outlook Report†released in April pointed out that the global economy is still in a sustained recovery and it is expected that the global economic growth rate in 2011 will be 4.4% and 4.5% in 2012.
The United States market. The pace of economic recovery in the United States was slow. In the first quarter of 2011, the amount of fasteners imported from the United States increased by 21% compared with the same period of 2010, but it fell by 26% compared with the same period in 2008. In the first quarter of 2011, the total amount of fasteners exported from Taiwan to the United States increased by 13% compared with the same period in 2010, but it was down by 8% compared to the same period in 2008. The fasteners exported from Taiwan to the United States have not yet recovered. Level before the financial crisis.
EU market. Although the euro market economy continues to recover, but influenced by the European sovereign debt crisis, the manufacturing confidence index is flat and the economic recovery is not strong. However, due to the EU's anti-dumping measures on fasteners originally produced in mainland China, Taiwan’s fasteners exported to the EU continue to show growth. After December 2004, the total number of fasteners exported from Taiwan to the EU reached 44,000 metric tons. In March 2011, the total number of fasteners exported from Taiwan to the EU reached a record high of 48,000 metric tons. In the first quarter of 2011, the total number of fasteners exported from Taiwan to the EU increased by 24% over the same period of last year.
In terms of average unit price. In the first quarter of 2011, the average unit price of fasteners exported from Taiwan to the United States was 71.3 yuan/kg, which was lower than the average annual price of 72.4 yuan/kg in 2010; the average unit price of exports to the EU was 75.1 yuan/kg, slightly lower than 2010 The annual average price is 75.5 yuan/kg.
3. Problems faced by Taiwan's fastener industry (I) After the earthquake, Taiwan's fasteners exported to Japan are expected to increase the annual production of fasteners in Japan by about 3 million metric tons, and there will be about 1,600 fastener companies. 39,000 people, mainly SMEs, up to 76% of the fastener company employees less than 20 people. In recent years, Japan’s fastener imports have remained stable. In addition to the sharp decrease in imports of fasteners from Japan in the wake of the financial turmoil in 2009, Japan’s fastener imports have remained below 290,000 metric tons, as shown in Figure 2. Japan's major imports are concentrated in three countries and regions: China, Taiwan, and South Korea, which account for 70%, 20%, and 4% of its imports, respectively. The three countries together accounted for over 90% of Japan's total imports. The amount of fasteners imported from Taiwan remains around 60,000 metric tons. After the Great Earthquake in Japan, Japan's regional power cuts have affected the original order of its industrial production and industrial supply chains; in addition, reconstruction work will drive the demand for fasteners and then increase imports. Therefore, Japan’s future imports of fasteners from China, Taiwan and South Korea are expected to increase.
Figure 2: Japanese Fastener Imports and Major Importing Countries from 2006 to 2010
(Source: Taiwan Institute of Customs Import and Export Database / Metal Center IT IS Plan)
At present, there are already shortages in the supply of supply chains in some parts of the world. If Taiwan manufacturers have received requests for inquiries, they should give priority to meeting their needs in order to facilitate the entry into the supply chain in the future.
(II) EU anti-dumping sunset investigation on stainless steel screws in Taiwan The product codes for the involved products were: 73181410, 73181530, 73181551, 73181561, 73181570. The EU’s imports of these six products over the years and their share of anti-dumping duties are shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Total imports of EU anti-dumping investigations from 2006 to 2010 and the proportion of relevant countries
In 2010, the EU’s total imports of the above six products totaled 79,000 metric tons. The main importing countries were India (accounting for 28% of total imports), the Philippines (20%), Malaysia (12%), Switzerland (8%), and Taiwan ( 8%), as well as other countries such as China (4%), Vietnam (3%), Indonesia (2%), while Thailand accounts for less than 1%.
If the case is referred to during the midterm review, the possibility of taxation will be reduced; if there is no mention of the review, there are two possibilities: First, the EU continues to impose anti-dumping duties at the original rate, and second, it stops the anti-dumping duties. With all the advantages and disadvantages, the industry should actively cooperate with the investigation and help the EU to make a correct judgment on Taiwan products.
4. Conclusions Looking forward to 2011, although the Great Japan Earthquake has caused some global industrial chains into chaos, combined with slowing economic growth in Europe and the United States to slow down the pace of global economic recovery, it has promoted the policy of expanding domestic demand in mainland China, as well as demand in Asian regions such as China and India. In spite of strong growth, manufacturers’ inventories will increase, global manufacturing will continue to show growth, and the outlook for the fastener industry is still optimistic.
At present, in addition to the slower recovery in the United States, the major export markets in Taiwan, the EU and ASEAN markets have shown significant growth. The remaining markets have even returned to pre-crisis levels. It is worth pointing out that Taiwan exported 1.21 million metric tons of fasteners in the first quarter, which is equivalent to the amount exported to the United States. It can be seen that the business opportunities in the EU market are considerable, and those in the fastener industry should actively obtain CE certification in order to facilitate the future development of the EU market.
It is estimated that Taiwan’s fastener export value in 2011 is expected to reach NT$118 billion, an increase of 15% from the year-ago period in 2010, and the output value will hit a record high, reaching NT$127 billion.
“In the first quarter of 2011, Taiwan’s fasteners exported to the EU had a record high, and exports to the United States declined.â€
Year/Item
2007
Year 2008
Year 2009
year 2010
First quarter of 2011
Last quarter ratio (%)
Year-on-year (%)
2011 (Prediction)
Year-on-year (%)
Production value
1,084
1,114
758
1,098
285
-2%
twenty two%
1,270
16%
Import value
36
47
34
42
10
-twenty three%
12%
45
8%
Export value
954
999
684
1,021
265
-2%
twenty two%
1,180
16%
Domestic market demand
166
108
118
30
-10%
18%
135
14%
Import dependence
twenty one%
29%
31%
35%
34%
33%
Export ratio
88%
89%
90%
93%
93%
93%
year 2006
2007
Year 2008
Year 2009
year 2010
Total EU imports (metric tons)
43,514
61,650
65,060
56,451
79,304
Taiwan, China
11.4%
9.5%
6.6%
6.5%
8.2%
China Mainland
5.2%
4.6%
3.6%
4.3%
4.0%
Vietnam
10.8%
7.3%
2.9%
2.6%
3.5%
Indonesia
5.2%
2.0%
1.3%
1.0%
1.6%
Thailand
0.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.5%
Other countries
65.4%
75.3%
84.9%
85.3%
82.3%