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According to SRI Consulting, traditional factors such as changes in demand, mergers and acquisitions, raw material changes, technological development, and environmental protection will continue to affect the development of the world's chemical industry over the next 15 years. At the same time, rapidly developing new fields such as biotechnology and nanotechnology will also guide the development of new products and new processes. In addition, the rise in chemical production costs will make hydrocarbon raw materials and energy as much as possible useful products; chemical companies will work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
BASF President pointed out that the main tasks facing chemical companies in the future are to strengthen restructuring, open up new markets, continue technological innovation and solve energy problems. At present, chemical companies have made progress in restructuring, many companies have increased their core competitiveness, and mergers and acquisitions have continued to occur. With the accelerating restructuring of western chemical business and the increase of emerging competitors, the scale of some large-scale manufacturers will reach 2 to 5 times now.
The president of the American Chemicals Commission pointed out that although the US chemical industry will encounter more severe competition from Asia and the Middle East than now, it will still maintain the top 10 chemical producers. Participants believe that the fast-growing Chinese market has surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest chemical market and will compete with the United States in 2020. In the future, China will maintain its position as a net importer of chemicals and local production will continue to grow. These factors will enable China to integrate itself into the global trend. India and Eastern Europe are also fast-growing markets and will further integrate into the global trend in 2020.
The European chemical industry will face the challenge of maintaining a global competitive advantage. According to the president of the European Chemicals Commission, due to rapid growth in Asia, the European chemical industry will now drop from 1/3 of the world's total production to 25% in 2015 and will continue to fall to 16% of world production.
The president of Xincheng Industry Corporation predicts that the output value of the global petrochemical industry will increase from the current 2 trillion US dollars to 10 trillion US dollars in 2020. The scale of investment in chemical projects will continue to increase. Investment in some mega projects will reach 4 billion to 5 billion U.S. dollars.
Last week, the United States "Chemical Weekly" organized a major discussion on the theme "The Chemical Industry: Prospects for 2020". Participants included the presidents of the Chemical Committee of the United States and the European Union and many world-renowned chemical companies. Participants agreed that although the global chemical industry has matured, innovation is still a key factor in its development. It is expected that by 2020, the chemical industry will enter a climax of innovation characterized by the rapid development of biological sciences and nanotechnology.