International crude oil approaching 80 U.S. dollars

"Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from the social monitoring agencies, the recent international crude oil rose close to 80 US dollars mark, is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. On May 25th, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. By then, there will be no suspense in the “five consecutive rises”.

Since the upgrading of refined oil products on May 11th, international crude oil has maintained a strong trend. With the OPEC monthly report that OECD oil stocks continued to decrease in March, showing that the OPEC countries' production reduction effect continues to ferment, and the political turmoil in the Middle East caused the market concerned about the supply prospects, oil prices closed up two days in a row.

Due to tighter supply and strong demand, Brent crude oil futures further closed to the $80 mark in the European market on May 17 and was the highest level since November 2014. ANZ Bank said that Brent crude oil may exceed 80 US dollars per barrel. Morgan Stanley said it has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil and believes it will rise to $90 a barrel by 2020.

Affected by the high crude oil international operation, the rate of change has continued to develop since the current round of valuation cycles. According to Jinlian, the average price of the reference crude oil as of the fourth working day of May 17 was US$74.69 per barrel, with a rate of change of 3.9. %, corresponding to gasoline and diesel prices increased by about 200 yuan per ton, the current round of price adjustment window for 24 hours on May 25th. Zhuchuang information monitoring data is 3.84%, corresponding to the increase of 167 yuan.

Xu Pengchuang analyst Xu Peng believes that in the short term, the international crude oil is easy to rise and fall, the rate of change will maintain a positive volatility, the current round of oil retail prices ushered in the "five consecutive up" can be said that there is no suspense, and gasoline and diesel The increase is expected to continue to expand.

In the news, the domestic refined oil wholesale market continued to surge. Due to the rising price of gasoline and diesel during the last round of the pricing cycle, midstream and downstream users in the venue have already stocked a large number of goods. Considering that the market inventory is already abundant, most insiders expect that refined oil prices will enter a correction period and may even moderately recover. However, under the stimulation of the continued rise in crude oil, the willingness of purchasers in the venue has also increased, and Shandong Geotechnics has continued to lead the rise in oil prices since Tuesday (May 15).

According to Jinlianchuang's refined oil valuation, the number of Shandong No. 0 diesel vehicles increased by RMB 100 to RMB 6,450 per ton in the past two days, and the cumulative number of gasoline produced by CNOOC was RMB 50 to RMB 7,350 per ton. Mainly, in the past two days, the increase of gasoline and diesel was 50 yuan per ton. On May 16, the mainstream transaction of 0 # vehicle diesel was at 6,500 yuan - 6,800 yuan per ton, and 92 # gasoline was mainly traded at 7,500 yuan - 7,700 yuan.

"Last period, due to the expected increase in the retail price of refined oil products in the current round, and a relatively large margin, or will support the wholesale market to maintain the upward trend." Xu Peng said.