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As of November 2017, the production and sales volume of China's new energy vehicles this year were 639,000 units and 609,000 units respectively, an increase of 49.7% and 51.4% year-on-year respectively. Corresponding to the rapid growth in the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles, the demand for power batteries also continues to increase. However, the supply of raw materials for the battery industry has not kept pace with the development of the industry. The raw material copper foil and separator of power battery have an imbalance between supply and demand. In a long period of time, the demand gap of the battery copper foil is relatively large. The battery separator market has become saturated, but the new production capacity is still expanding. In 2018, there may be a loss in the entire industry. .

According to the data, in 2015, the global supply of lithium battery copper foil was 90,000 tons, the demand was 91,000 tons, and the gap ratio was 1%; in 2016, the supply was 105,000 tons, and the gap ratio was expanded to 3%; The amount is expected to be 110,000 tons, and the gap ratio is further expanded to 8%. In China, the increase in production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has driven the growth of copper foil production capacity. In 2015, the copper foil production capacity was 59,000 tons, which was a 19.1% increase from the previous year. However, the increased production capacity still cannot meet the demand of the lithium battery industry. “During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the demand for porous copper foils with a thickness of less than 6 microns will further increase.” According to estimates, the supply of lithium battery copper foil will be 146,000 tons and the demand will be 161 thousand tons in 2018. The gap will further widen. After 2019, the supply imbalance will ease, but there is still a 2%--3% gap this year. In addition, the increase in copper prices coupled with the increase in demand for power batteries for copper foil has led to a significant increase in copper foil prices.

Lithium battery, another raw material separator, has appeared oversupply. In lithium batteries, the separator is one of the key inner components, and its requirements are also very high. It must not only resist the corrosion of organic solvents, but also maintain the permeability so that the ions can pass through smoothly and resist the high temperature generated by the electrochemical. However, diaphragm production capacity has not been constrained. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the global battery separator production line is rapidly expanding and there has been an overcapacity situation.

In 2016, the global production capacity of lithium battery separators was 4.2 billion square meters, and the demand was 3.5 billion square meters. The demand in China alone reached 2 billion square meters. However, during the same period, the output of China's domestic diaphragms was approximately 1.2 billion square meters, which led to a heavy dependence on imports from China's diaphragm industry. However, there is a large amount of diaphragm imports, and the space for replacement of domestically produced products is also large. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China, a large amount of investment has begun to enter the lithium battery separator industry, and the pace of construction of the diaphragm industry production line is also accelerating.

In March 2017, more than 10 Chinese companies planned to add more than 40 membrane production lines with a production capacity of over 1 billion square meters. Since March, there have been many new builders, such as Shenzhen Xingyuan Materials will build 6 production lines with a production capacity of 300 million square meters; Shanghai Enjie will invest 5.5 billion yuan to produce battery separators; The production line will be put into operation. By June 2018, the production line will reach 20, with a production capacity of over 2 billion square meters. The Peking University will invest 20 production lines with a production capacity of over 1 billion square meters. Hubei Jiangsheng will invest in 4 production lines with a production capacity of over 200 million square meters. . “As of the end of October 2017, there have been more than 120 new production lines that have been publicly announced across the country.”

In 2018, there are an estimated 20 companies that are interested in entering the lithium battery separator industry. By that time, the national lithium battery separator production capacity will reach 8 billion square meters. In 2018, the lithium battery separator industry may suffer a total loss.

The diaphragm industry has the largest impact from subsidies and slopes. Recently, the rumors of the early retreat of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018 caused many battery companies to worry. According to industry sources, subsidies will fall ahead of schedule, and vehicle companies must require battery companies to reduce supply prices. Among battery materials, there is a large gap in lithium battery copper foil materials, and positive and negative materials are imported in large quantities, and the cost reduction space is limited. The diaphragm industry may be the most affected area. "The rumors of subsidy falling ahead of time have prompted many diaphragm manufacturers to readjust their production processes. Among them, the dry process has been valued by more and more companies.

At present, the problems faced by the diaphragm industry have attracted great attention. Since May 2017, more than 10 companies have given up their investment in the lithium battery separator industry, and many companies that originally intended to enter the diaphragm manufacturing industry have gradually become increasingly persuasive. Tends to be rational. Lithium battery separator industry needs to work hard to improve production efficiency and product quality, reduce costs and control risks, rather than capacity expansion.



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