Heavy Truck Market Trends in 2011

Recently, there have been constant calls from auto news media, consulting companies, securities companies, and friends from the industry or discussions on the development trend of the heavy truck market and its products in China this year. Because the topics are basically the same, the author here The author elaborates on some of my observation observations and observations, in order to further deepen the study of the development trend of Chinese heavy trucks with friends in various fields, which may be of great benefit to the Chinese automobile industry and economic development.

A. Analysis of the macroeconomic environment Because China is different from all countries in the world, everything is centered on politics and taxation for the whole society. The auto market is a typical policy auto market, especially in the heavy truck market. In the past two years, the introduction or withdrawal of several policies of the central government to stimulate the auto market will enable the Chinese auto market to change its positive and negative conditions. For example, Beijing’s purchase restriction at the beginning of this year was a case of a terminally ill patient with ill health. The auto market in the country and the general public followed suit.

2011 was the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The Central Government had just held an economic work conference at the end of last year, and it has already established a proactive fiscal policy and a steady monetary tightening policy in 2011. The macroeconomic environment will still maintain stable and rapid growth this year, but the growth momentum will slow down. At the same time, the macroeconomic operation is also facing many challenges, including inflation, price, exchange rate, and labor cost growth. This affects not only the domestic market but also overseas exports. In addition, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” has established a basic policy of changing the mode of economic development. This will affect the direction of investment and investment in 2011, which will have a greater impact on the demand for the heavy truck market.

Economic restructuring and investment in fixed assets are still the main driving forces for the rapid development of the heavy truck industry. The status and role of the heavy truck industry in the national economy is increasingly evident. It is expected that the growth rate of GDP will remain at around 9% in 2011, and the total increase in the country’s total social investment will remain at around 25%. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the government’s implementation of the 10-year plan for a total investment of about 700 billion yuan in Western Development will promote GDP growth again. The investment in fixed assets, total volume of road freight, and turnover volume should maintain rapid growth. The construction of infrastructure projects will continue to grow, and will continue to have a huge impact on the heavy truck market.

From this year onwards, the state will again increase its efforts in the development of the western region and launch the construction of small towns. With the acceleration of the speed of urbanization and the impact of natural disasters, the state will invest more in local water conservancy construction. In addition, the basic projects related to people's livelihood, the total project construction will not be reduced. The pace of urbanization and the development of the energy industry will continue to accelerate, and relevant supporting infrastructure construction projects will continue to be launched one after another. Under the combined effect of these favorable superposition factors, it is the rigid support for the expansion of the market capacity of the heavy truck industry and the replacement of vehicles. The good start of the “Twelfth Five-Year” development plan will surely bring about a new leap in the heavy truck industry. Although the growth rate of the heavy truck market is expected to slow down more rationally next year, there is ample room for development in the domestic and foreign markets, as well as large market potential and market structure opportunities. The major heavy truck companies will speed up the development of globalization this year and accelerate the construction of overseas positions overseas.

B. Recovery of the global economy China's logistics market will go up. The world has gradually emerged from the financial crisis, showing a recovery. The Chinese economy is the main engine of world economic development. The recovery of the world economy will play a leading role in the Chinese logistics market. With the intensification of the transportation industry, the role played by large logistics companies is increasingly important. In addition, the profit model of the transportation industry has shifted from the past as the main form of overloading to the current pursuit of transportation efficiency. This puts forward higher requirements on products, which are heavy-duty, power-boosting, intelligent and reliable, especially fuel economy. Sex will become the focus of attention. The domestic logistics market will drive the growth of some long-haul tractors. In addition, the policy of weight-based charging caused changes in profitable models, and some users’ in-use vehicles were quickly updated in 2011, releasing some of the demand ahead of schedule.

C. Weight-based tolls and high oil prices will promote the upgrading of heavy-duty truck products In recent years, under the continuous influence of the cancellation of road maintenance fees and weight-loading policies and regulations by the central government and local governments, the impact on commercial vehicles, especially the heavy-duty truck market, has been tremendous. It is mainly reflected in the light weight of vehicles and the heavy lifting of power. Logistics companies are increasingly concerned about the high efficiency and economy of road transport, which has promoted the rapid development of heavy trucks in the direction of high-end and high-power. This year, while the input of heavy-duty trucks such as 11L and 13L will increase, the lighter weight and natural gas trends will become more pronounced. New technologies such as AMT, GPS, and new braking systems will upgrade and enhance the handling of heavy-duty trucks. Energy saving. The pace of retrofitting will accelerate, and the market share of special vehicles will further expand.

D. Heavy truck enterprises will speed up the integration of upstream and downstream industry chains. This year, the relationship between various heavy truck OEMs and diesel engine manufacturers has gradually evolved from a few years ago in strategic cooperation to equity cooperation. The entire industry chain of the group companies More and more. It is not difficult to find that at present, major domestic automakers are constructing or reorganizing their own diesel engine plants. For instance, FAW Liberation has Xichai and Dachai supporting power series products, China National Heavy Duty Truck has two engine production bases of Hangfa and Zhangqiu. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Company is mainly supported by Dongfeng Cummins and newly built 30,000 Dongfeng dCi11 engines. Powertrain base. Even at Weichai Power Holding's vehicle plant, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, has also set foot in the engine sector in order to get rid of Weichai's control and establish a strategic cooperative relationship with Cummins to jointly produce an 11-litre high-powered engine. In the first half of 2011, Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. and Daimler AG’s medium-heavy goods vehicle and engine joint venture company are expected to be established. After the project is put into production, the annual production capacity of Mercedes-Benz OM457 series engines will reach 4.5-50,000 units. In September 2010, JAC signed an agreement with Navistar and NC2 Global LLC to establish a joint venture between the vehicle and the engine. The Navistar engine series Maxxforce includes 7L, 9L, 10L, and 11L. 13 liters of a full range of light, medium and heavy products. With the increasing sales of heavy trucks, it is an inevitable trend for this year and the future to establish or acquire an engine plant.

E. Heavy truck enterprise service competition will tend to become more intense in 2011. It will surely be a year for heavy truck companies to improve their service measures. It is still the only way for all heavy truck companies to enhance their market competitiveness. The weapon. The reason why heavy truck companies pay more and more attention to after-sales service is that with the gradual dilution of product profits, after-sales service has become the most stable profit source in the automotive industry chain. More importantly, with the intensification of product homogeneity, the differentiation of services will be the decisive technique and the magic weapon for winning the competition.

F. Estimated heavy truck sales this year There has been an explosive growth in the total demand of the heavy truck market in 2010. The total scale is close to 1.3 million, which is not found in the global market of more than one million vehicles. Although there are people presently holding pessimistic attitudes and views on the heavy-duty truck market in this year and next year, I am cautiously optimistic about the total demand and insist that the market maintains a forecast of around 1.2 million vehicles in 2011. It is expected that in terms of product structure, sales of special vehicles and tractors will increase, dump trucks will continue to grow steadily, and sales of slightly smaller tonnage trucks will decline slightly. In addition, monetary tightening next year, the impact of inflationary pressures and oil prices, and raw materials will continue to increase, will lead to increased vehicle costs, which will affect the profitability of the transport industry, the transport market is now facing the challenge of increased operating costs. These unfavorable factors will weaken the macro environment's driving force for demand for medium and heavy trucks. At the same time, as the country’s 4 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment is basically completed, once the weakening of investment in infrastructure investment, coupled with the bank credit contraction, etc., are all negative factors for the 2011 heavy truck market.