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Analysts believe that before the end of the year, the operating rate of soda ash companies is still difficult to increase, while the demand for soda ash is strong, and the orders received by companies are full, and the prices of products continue to rise.
According to the data provided by the major manufacturers, the large soda ash companies raised their soda ash prices by around RMB 1000-1200/t from mid-October, before and after the soda ash conference held in eastern China on October 25. At present, the price of light alkali and heavy alkali in East China reached 2,600 yuan/ton and 2,700 yuan/ton, respectively, which was nearly 57% and 59% higher than the price of 1,650 yuan/ton and 1,700 yuan/ton in the middle.
On October 27th, Tangshan Sanyou light alkali price was 2,600 yuan/ton, heavy alkali price was 2,700 yuan/ton; Qingdao alkali light alkali price was 2,800 yuan/ton, and heavy alkali was offered at 3,000 yuan/ton; Huachang Chemical Industry was light Alkali prices 2700 yuan / ton, heavy alkali prices 2800 yuan / ton; Shandong Haihua light alkali prices 2700 yuan / ton, heavy alkali prices 2800 yuan / ton. Soda ash companies all said that the current order was full and there was no supply of new orders.
Pan Xiaoli, an analyst at China Chemical Network, believes that the main reason for the rise in soda ash prices is the shortage of supply due to energy conservation and emission reductions.
Although the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice in September to correct many local governments to adopt the “one size fits all†piezoelectricity and power limiting measures to achieve the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy-saving and emission reduction targets, the local government’s energy-saving and emission-reduction policy has continued, including Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The strength of Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China is relatively large, resulting in lower operating rates of soda ash plants in these areas.
It is understood that Henan Jinshan Chemical and other companies suspended production, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical Soda plant started 40%, while Shuanghuan technology companies such as soda ash plant shutdown maintenance, in addition, Sichuan and Shaanxi area tight supply of natural gas, the Asian Games approaching, South China business production expectations Gradually increasing, the supply of goods from other places is expected to decrease, and many factors cause the price of soda ash to “rise.â€
Downstream demand is strong Supply reduction, while the demand for soda ash downstream is very strong. The glass and alumina industry market rebounded, and the purchase volume of soda ash increased, driving market conditions to continue to heat up; international market demand was also improving, US soda ash stocks fell to low levels, and affected by supplemental inventory, China's soda ash makers' exports rebounded.
Analysts believe that although the cost of raw salt and energy in the upper reaches rises, the spread between products and raw materials expands, and the profits of relevant companies will increase.
Companies that have soda business in listed companies include Qingdao Alkali, Shandong Haihua, Sanyou Chemicals, Huachang Chemical, Shuanghuan Technology and Jinjing Technology.
As for the later trend of the price of soda ash, analysts indicated that on the supply side, although the soda ash plant of Shuanghuan Technology and other companies will restart in November, energy-saving and emission reduction will enter the sprint stage in the fourth quarter, and the power-restricted production restriction policy is expected to continue, and Qingdao Alkali industry and other companies will further reduce the operating rate in November, so it is expected that before the end of the year, the operating rate of soda ash business is still difficult to increase.
In terms of demand, the production of glass and alumina downstream of soda ash will continue to increase, driving soda ash consumption.
In addition, under the influence of inflation factors, energy and other production costs increase, which will form a strong support for the price of soda ash. Therefore, the recent rise in the price of soda ash is a general trend and is expected to remain at a high level until the end of December.
From the end of August to mid-October, less than two months, soda ash prices rose by 50%. In late October, soda ash prices started to rise again. Compared with mid-October, the price rose nearly 60%, exceeding market expectations. .